Pakistan may likely cease to exist and get Balkanised by 2030

Pakistan is under an existential crisis

In this Article, I discuss some points on why Pakistan will balakanise by 2030 and what are the reasons that will be responsible for that.

A. Water Scarcity

  1. By 2027, Pakistan will have 25% population without access to water. Since 70 years, they have not built any further dams or irrigation projects. They are literally running out of water.
  2. Sutlej, Ravi and Beas which provide 65% of water to Indus basin is fully tapped and diverted by India. India uses 92% of these 3 rivers.
  3. Narendra Modi has planned to make it 100%. They have started almost 15 dams in Kathua — Jammu belt to divert tributaries of Ravi to stop their flow to pak. Chenab officially is not under control but still we have tapped 25% of its water.
  4. Pakistan has Indus, Chenab and Jhelum for use. Indus is a dry river as it passes through cold desert Ladakh which has few snow and no rain, Jhelum doesn’t have such a huge water to feed Pakistan, this leaves only chenab but India has already tapped 25% chenab water to feed Jammu.

a) Indus- 65 lacs L/sec

b) Chenab 7 lacs L/sec

c) Jhelum- 2.2 lacs L/sec

Compare this with Ganga (having 97 dams)- average discharge 2020- 6 crore L/sec

6. For 45 crores population, pakistan needs some 3 crore L/sec water from Indus if it wants to live by Indian standard If India uses another 20%, Indus discharge will decline to 2 lacs L/sec which is even worse than Godavari river which has 3 lacs L/sec discharge in hot summers.

7. Godavari supports some 9 crore people while Indus supports some 17 crore people by 2020. No wonder Pakistan wants Kashmir for water.

8. by 2025, Indus discharge will decrease to 4 lacs L/sec This will put the so called mighty Indus even behind Krishna river They have only 1 big dam on Indus Tarbela Dam that too built by british standards. And they have another Mangla Dam in Mirpur on Jhelum

9. Tarbela’s capacity has shrunk drastically because of sedimentation over the years. They dont have any dam or plan on Chenab (which is officially under their control), while India has built 13 small big dams on Chenab.

10. India is building a dam in Afghanistan on Kabul river called Shahtoot dam which will reduce the water flow of Kabul river to Pakistan, which means that even the Kabul river isn’t spared by India, as all the rivers of Pakistan originate outside Pakistan and hence all of the rivers that feeds Pakistan are getting choked by India. Here is a map for reference:

B. Economic Reasons

  1. Pakistan’s GDP as of today is roughly 260 Billion dollars and as per World Bank will grow by only 1.5% in FY 21–22, for comparison Pakistan’s neighbour India will grow at 11.5% in the same FY.
  2. 2. Pakistan’s gross external debt is 113 Billion dollars which is 40+% of their GDP and this number is expected to increase even further due to CPEC.
  3. Pakistan recently lost a reko diq case worth 6 billion dollars and it will have to pay the sum to the court, it may seem a small amount for a country like India or UK but it is 2.17% of Pakistan’s GDP!
  4. Inflation rate of Pakistan is highest among the South Asian countries at a whopping 12%. Which is a bad sign for the economy.
  5. Pakistan’s fertility rate or number of live births per mother is 3.51! while the 2nd position holder in South Asia, India is at 2.2 and after it reaches 2.1 will ensure no population growth. Pakistan’s population growth rate is more than Economic growth rate.
  6. Pakistan’s fiscal deficit is rising and rising very fast and their trade deficit is increasing even when Pakistan’s exports are increasing.
  7. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are just a mere 20 Billion dollars enough to pay the import bills for just a quarter.
  8. Pakistan’s literacy rate is at 58% and this 58% includes 75% literacy rate of Pakistan-occupied territories of Jammu Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan which rightfully belong to India but were annexed by Pakistan in 1948 war. Which means that their economic growth will remain hindered due to less educated population.
  9. Pakistan stands at 122 rank at ease of logistics rank making Manufacturing in Pakistan next to impossible.
  10. Pakistan doesn’t have IT industry, fintech industry or a manufacturing sector which will stagnate Pakistan’s growth in Future.
  11. Pakistan’s majority exports are just textiles and agricultural produce which cannot drive Pakistan’s growth forever.
  12. Pakistani government has not yet started mass vaccination of its citizens as of today and it will further stagnate the economy of Pakistan if population is not vaccinated quickly. Even though small scale vaccination with vaccines donated by China is ongoing.
  13. Pakistan has no plan of adopting 5G in near future as of now which will hinder faster growth of Pakistani economy while its neighbour India will roll out indigenous 5G technology in coming few months.
  14. Pakistan’s currency is falling against the dollar affecting the Pakistani economy badly.
  15. Pakistan is Grey Listed by FATF on charges of terror financing which is giving huge blows to the Pakistani economy and will become worse if Pakistan becomes Black Listed, Pakistan has already lost around 38 Billion dollars due to being on the grey list of FATF.
  16. Pakistan’s trade deficit is rising every year and now even their current account has gone into a deficit from a surplus a few days ago as of today.
  17. Pakistan will have to innovate to welcome the future but Pakistan doesn’t spend much on R&D.
  18. Pakistan’s GDP is at 45th Spot globally as of today while according to global firepower the Pakistani military is 10th strongest military in the world as it spends nearly 4.2% of the GDP on defence which is way much high for a developing country and is expected to grow further due to current tensions on IB. This huge spending on a military that a country like Pakistan cannot afford is hurting Pakistan a lot as its purchase plus maintenance and additional human resources required pumps out lots of money which can be utilised for betterment of economy.
  19. Pakistan’s infrastructure does not meet requirements of today let alone future and now Pakistan doesn’t have enough money for its development. Pakistan does not give much attention to education thats why it is facing unpreceedented brain drains while other countries like India and China are experiencing reverse brain drain due to sufficient infrastructure.
  20. Weakening of Pakistani currency will reduce the size of their economy and increase their debt value which can be very dangerous.
  21. Pakistan’s space agency is as good as nothing which could have played an important part in growth of Pakistan in future but it is impossible for Pakistan to spend money on it and reap the benefits.
  22. Total Public Debt and Liabilities of Pakistan is estimated to be about Rs44.978 trillion/US$283 billion which is more than 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) of Pakistan as of December 2020 which is creating a huge cash shortage in Pakistan.
  23. Pakistan spends way too much on proxy warfare against India and Afghanistan which is unimaginable, wonder why a small country Bangladesh less than half the size of Pakistan and less population and resources has better GDP than Pakistan achieved in less than 50 years compared to 74 years of Pakistan, it’s former occupier.
  24. Circular debt has risen from Rs1.1 trillion in 2018 to Rs2.4 trillion — and is projected to hit Rs4 trillion by 2025. Lo and behold, circular debt is projected to hit a worrisome 8 percent of GDP.

25. The number of Taxpayers in Pakistan is drastically falling, in just a year the number of taxpayers fell 30% from 3.12 million individuals and companies in 2020 list to 2.178 million individuals and companies in 2021 list! and if this trend continues atleast at a slower pace compared to the huge dip of 30%, Pakistani government will have no money for debt servicing which it already doesn’t have plus no money for future development projects that will hinder their GDP growth and Wealth creation.

26. Pakistan already wants to take more and more loans from World Bank and IMF as it doesn’t matter to the political class and deepstate of Pakistan much as dual citizenship is perfectly legal in Pakistan, causing the political class and deepstate to leave the country in crises, like the way their Army generals and Ministers have dual citizenship, because of the same purpose of fleeing away from Pakistan if situation worsens.

27. IMF will now have control over the State Bank of Pakistan, similar to India’s RBI) which will make sure that SBP is focussed more on debt servicing and very few of the money will be available for development.

C. CPEC and Turkey-Iran-Pakistan rail line

  1. CPEC is a bilateral corridor which is being constructed under the one belt one road initiative of the CCP is under construction and total 62 billion dollars will be loaned to Pakistan in 15 years which will be spent on Chinese labors and Raw materials produced in China which will return a huge percentage of 62 Billion dollars and will give Pakistan a free debt trap of 62 Billion dollars at a high interest rate and will not reap benefits for population as it isn’t employing Pakistanis or benefiting Pakistani raw material suppliers. After completion, CPEC will flood the Pakistani markets unprecedently with Chinese goods as Pakistan’s industrial base is very very weak causing huge imports and causing huge import bills and shutting down the already less present indigenous industries in Pakistan important for their growth and if in future it causes Pakistani markets to be flooded with Chinese agro and milk products then it will destroy the backbone of majority of its population which earns from Rural produce. And it is happening.
  2. Turkey-Iran-Pakistan rail line once completed will do the same thing as CPEC to Pakistan flooding Turkish goods and expensive Iranian crude oil in Pakistani markets due to high soft power of Turkey in Pakistan after the TV Serial Ertugrul Ghazi was broadcasted in Pakistan. Causing more imports and less exports and causing further economic damage to Pakistan.

If Pakistan would have made an Industrial corridor with Chinese loans giving employment to Pakistanis and Pakistani raw material suppliers then it would have definitely made Pakistan a regional economic powerhouse but the way CPEC is going will only damage Pakistan like China did to Sri Lanka by debt trap.

3. And Gwadar port will become a failure as Indo-Iranian Chabahar port is receiving much support for trade by Central Asia including Russia and in future many more countries while none for Gwadar.

C. Diplomatic reasons

  1. Pakistan is obsessed so much with Kashmir that it never focusses on their own country or diplomacy while adressing Kashmir so much so that it has destroyed its relationship with middle east by threatening to break OIC for Kashmir causing huge blow to the relations between Pakistan and OIC and now Pakistanis are not being given Visas in middle east which in future will stop the flow of remittances that is like a ventilator for the Pakistani economy today.
  2. Being on the Grey List makes Pakistan diplomatically isolated and due to the Kashmir rhetoric Pakistan never focussed on her own country and in future also will have to import everything instead of self reliance in majority of things which will only stagnate Pakistan’s growth which is very dangerous. Pakistan has already lost $38 Billion wealth due to FATF Grey listing.
  3. European Union considers Pakistan a hub of Global Terror hence Europe has bad relations with Pakistan, plus the fact that Pakistani citizens have been regularly involved in terrorism activities like bomb blasts and stabbings makes them vulnerable to EU sanctions.

D. Climatic Reasons

  1. Karachi and Lahore metropolitan cities has 8–9 hours of power cut in summers while Shimla in Himachal has 24 hours power supply. They dont even have enough coal to run thermal power plants while they have 0 nuclear plant. Pakistan never focussed on renewable energy while its neighbour India is doing tremendous job in it and is a huge producer of renewable energy and has a massive program of manufacturing Electric Vehicles in India to cut reliance on foreign fuels while Pakistan has no such plans and due to poor infrastructure very few EV Makers will setup plants in Pakistan but then Pakistan’s economic numbers are poor and may cause less sales for them and Pakistan hence will have to import fossil fuels at huge prices from the gulf forever.
  2. Karachi is going to look like Dhaka by 2030 It already has just 15% green cover (Mumbai has 58%, Delhi at 43%), it has severe shortage of water and power. Excessive concreting has led to urban thermal effect leading to 49–51°C temperature in summers. And water table of Pakistan is fast depleting.
  3. China is shifting all its Thermal power plants to Pakistan under CPEC Power projects causing huge climatic pollution in Pakistan which is very bad for not only Pakistan but also its neighbours who are focussing on clean energy.

E. Other Factors

  1. Just compare the population growth of twin cities of Lahore Amritsar which are just 20 kms apart In 1947, both had 4–6 lacs population. both received equal migrants. Amritsar is at 13 lacs while Lahore at 1.5 crore in 2020. Huge population growth will make Pakistan poorer and will cause slumification of Pakistani cities affecting the growth rate of Pakistani cities and eventually Pakistan.
  2. Due to such chaos tourism industry will lose a huge chunk of GDP as very few people will take risk of going to Pakistan in such state.
  3. Insurgencies in Balochistan, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces are hindering development in those regions which itself is causing losses to Pakistani economy as no development means no growth.
  4. China is trying hard to keep Pakistan afloat by giving them loans but now even china has stopped giving loans since Pak cannot pay back. Pakistan uses 92% of its revenue to just pay interest on loans (don’t even start on the principal sum).
  5. Pakistan paid Saudi installments by getting another loan from china. Pakistan is getting loan to pay another loan. By 2023, Pak will have a free fall in its economy similar to Zimbabwe. Pakistan’s FDI inflow is already low and is slowing down.
  6. There is very huge insurgencies caused by the torture on their own civilians like the Baloch insurgency, Sindhi insurgency, Pashtun insurgency and maybe in future Muhajir and Pakistan occupied Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan insurgency, which is giving them huge economic blows one can’t even imagine.

While her neighbour India is expected to become a 5 Trillion dollars nominal economy by 2025 and 10 trillion dollars nominal economy by 2030, and is receiving billions in FDI and is not facing any above issue (permanently).

Pakistan’s financial status proves that they don’t have enough money to stimulate their economy back to growth at a level in which Pakistan can survive and is moving towards financial bankruptcy or even a civil war in coming years as if Pakistan was not having huge debts then one could have said, Pakistan will grow slowly in comparison to India but will grow and easily survive but the huge external debts is hitting hard on Pakistan and interest rates are high causing an increase in the total debt every year. Pakistan’s internal public debt is also so high making it difficult for their government to fund for projects at huge scale as they require billions of dollars and even billions of dollars is a huge amount with respect to Pakistani economy. Pakistan’s primary airline is banned worldwide due to fake pilot licenses scandal in Pakistan which is further hindering Pakistan’s growth and stopping the much needed revenue for Pakistani government to survive.

Pakistan will have to buy vaccines worth 3 Billion dollars (1.05% of Pakistani GDP) and due to mass radicalisation and illiteracy vaccination will become an issue as the same with polio vaccination hence Pakistan is the only country in the world along with War struck Afghanistan which has to date not eradicated polio as polio workers get attacked by radical groups claiming vaccines as “Anti-Islam”. Hence Pakistan at such critical economic condition will have to waste a lot on vaccines and will still be unable to vaccinate the population.

Pakistan’s Fall by 2030 is inevitable, and I conclude it by giving tonnes of facts and Pakistan should stop comparing herself with India.

Jai Hind!

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